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 outage probability



Revisiting Outage for Edge Inference Systems

Wang, Zhanwei, Zeng, Qunsong, Zheng, Haotian, Huang, Kaibin

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

One of the key missions of sixth-generation (6G) mobile networks is to deploy large-scale artificial intelligence (AI) models at the network edge to provide remote-inference services for edge devices. The resultant platform, known as edge inference, will support a wide range of Internet-of-Things applications, such as autonomous driving, industrial automation, and augmented reality. Given the mission-critical and time-sensitive nature of these tasks, it is essential to design edge inference systems that are both reliable and capable of meeting stringent end-to-end (E2E) latency constraints. Existing studies, which primarily focus on communication reliability as characterized by channel outage probability, may fail to guarantee E2E performance, specifically in terms of E2E inference accuracy and latency. To address this limitation, we propose a theoretical framework that introduces and mathematically characterizes the inference outage (InfOut) probability, which quantifies the likelihood that the E2E inference accuracy falls below a target threshold. Under an E2E latency constraint, this framework establishes a fundamental tradeoff between communication overhead (i.e., uploading more sensor observations) and inference reliability as quantified by the InfOut probability. To find a tractable way to optimize this tradeoff, we derive accurate surrogate functions for InfOut probability by applying a Gaussian approximation to the distribution of the received discriminant gain. Experimental results demonstrate the superiority of the proposed design over conventional communication-centric approaches in terms of E2E inference reliability.


Transmission Line Outage Probability Prediction Under Extreme Events Using Peter-Clark Bayesian Structural Learning

Chen, Xiaolin, Huang, Qiuhua, Zhou, Yuqi

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Recent years have seen a notable increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. With a rising number of power outages caused by these events, accurate prediction of power line outages is essential for safe and reliable operation of power grids. The Bayesian network is a probabilistic model that is very effective for predicting line outages under weather-related uncertainties. However, most existing studies in this area offer general risk assessments, but fall short of providing specific outage probabilities. In this work, we introduce a novel approach for predicting transmission line outage probabilities using a Bayesian network combined with Peter-Clark (PC) structural learning. Our approach not only enables precise outage probability calculations, but also demonstrates better scalability and robust performance, even with limited data. Case studies using data from BPA and NOAA show the effectiveness of this approach, while comparisons with several existing methods further highlight its advantages.


Hierarchical Learning and Computing over Space-Ground Integrated Networks

Zhu, Jingyang, Shi, Yuanming, Zhou, Yong, Jiang, Chunxiao, Kuang, Linling

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Space-ground integrated networks hold great promise for providing global connectivity, particularly in remote areas where large amounts of valuable data are generated by Internet of Things (IoT) devices, but lacking terrestrial communication infrastructure. The massive data is conventionally transferred to the cloud server for centralized artificial intelligence (AI) models training, raising huge communication overhead and privacy concerns. To address this, we propose a hierarchical learning and computing framework, which leverages the lowlatency characteristic of low-earth-orbit (LEO) satellites and the global coverage of geostationary-earth-orbit (GEO) satellites, to provide global aggregation services for locally trained models on ground IoT devices. Due to the time-varying nature of satellite network topology and the energy constraints of LEO satellites, efficiently aggregating the received local models from ground devices on LEO satellites is highly challenging. By leveraging the predictability of inter-satellite connectivity, modeling the space network as a directed graph, we formulate a network energy minimization problem for model aggregation, which turns out to be a Directed Steiner Tree (DST) problem. We propose a topologyaware energy-efficient routing (TAEER) algorithm to solve the DST problem by finding a minimum spanning arborescence on a substitute directed graph. Extensive simulations under realworld space-ground integrated network settings demonstrate that the proposed TAEER algorithm significantly reduces energy consumption and outperforms benchmarks.


IRS-Assisted Lossy Communications Under Correlated Rayleigh Fading: Outage Probability Analysis and Optimization

Li, Guanchang, Lin, Wensheng, Li, Lixin, He, Yixuan, Yang, Fucheng, Han, Zhu

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper focuses on an intelligent reflecting surface (IRS)-assisted lossy communication system with correlated Rayleigh fading. We analyze the correlated channel model and derive the outage probability of the system. Then, we design a deep reinforce learning (DRL) method to optimize the phase shift of IRS, in order to maximize the received signal power. Moreover, this paper presents results of the simulations conducted to evaluate the performance of the DRL-based method. The simulation results indicate that the outage probability of the considered system increases significantly with more correlated channel coefficients. Moreover, the performance gap between DRL and theoretical limit increases with higher transmit power and/or larger distortion requirement.


Deep Learning-Based Weather-Related Power Outage Prediction with Socio-Economic and Power Infrastructure Data

Wang, Xuesong, Fatehi, Nina, Wang, Caisheng, Nazari, Masoud H.

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper presents a deep learning-based approach for hourly power outage probability prediction within census tracts encompassing a utility company's service territory. Two distinct deep learning models, conditional Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) and unconditional MLP, were developed to forecast power outage probabilities, leveraging a rich array of input features gathered from publicly available sources including weather data, weather station locations, power infrastructure maps, socio-economic and demographic statistics, and power outage records. Given a one-hour-ahead weather forecast, the models predict the power outage probability for each census tract, taking into account both the weather prediction and the location's characteristics. The deep learning models employed different loss functions to optimize prediction performance. Our experimental results underscore the significance of socio-economic factors in enhancing the accuracy of power outage predictions at the census tract level.


Outage Performance and Novel Loss Function for an ML-Assisted Resource Allocation: An Exact Analytical Framework

Simmons, Nidhi, Simmons, David E, Yacoub, Michel Daoud

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We introduce a novel loss function to minimize the outage probability of an ML-based resource allocation system. A single-user multi-resource greedy allocation strategy constitutes our application scenario, for which an ML binary classification predictor assists in selecting a resource satisfying the established outage criterium. While other resource allocation policies may be suitable, they are not the focus of our study. Instead, our primary emphasis is on theoretically developing this loss function and leveraging it to train an ML model to address the outage probability challenge. With no access to future channel state information, this predictor foresees each resource's likely future outage status. When the predictor encounters a resource it believes will be satisfactory, it allocates it to the user. Our main result establishes exact and asymptotic expressions for this system's outage probability. These expressions reveal that focusing solely on the optimization of the per-resource outage probability conditioned on the ML predictor recommending resource allocation (a strategy that appears to be most appropriate) may produce inadequate predictors that reject every resource. They also reveal that focusing on standard metrics, like precision, false-positive rate, or recall, may not produce optimal predictors. With our result, we formulate a theoretically optimal, differentiable loss function to train our predictor. We then compare predictors trained using this and traditional loss functions namely, binary cross-entropy (BCE), mean squared error (MSE), and mean absolute error (MAE). In all scenarios, predictors trained using our novel loss function provide superior outage probability performance. Moreover, in some cases, our loss function outperforms predictors trained with BCE, MAE, and MSE by multiple orders of magnitude.


Over-the-Air Computation in OFDM Systems with Imperfect Channel State Information

Chen, Yilong, Xing, Huijun, Xu, Jie, Xu, Lexi, Cui, Shuguang

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper studies the over-the-air computation (AirComp) in an orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (OFDM) system with imperfect channel state information (CSI), in which multiple single-antenna wireless devices (WDs) simultaneously send uncoded signals to a multi-antenna access point (AP) for distributed functional computation over multiple subcarriers. In particular, we consider two scenarios with best-effort and error-constrained computation tasks, with the objectives of minimizing the average computation mean squared error (MSE) and the computation outage probability over the multiple subcarriers, respectively. Towards this end, we jointly optimize the transmit coefficients at the WDs and the receive beamforming vectors at the AP over subcarriers, subject to the maximum transmit power constraints at individual WDs. First, for the special case with a single receive antenna at the AP, we propose the semi-closed-form globally optimal solutions to the two problems using the Lagrange-duality method. It is shown that at each subcarrier, the WDs' optimized power control policy for average MSE minimization follows a regularized channel inversion structure, while that for computation outage probability minimization follows an on-off regularized channel inversion, with the regularization dependent on the transmit power budget and channel estimation error. Next, for the general case with multiple receive antennas at the AP, we present efficient algorithms based on alternating optimization and convex optimization to find converged solutions to both problems.


Minimizing the Outage Probability in a Markov Decision Process

Corlay, Vincent, Sibel, Jean-Christophe

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Standard Markov decision process (MDP) and reinforcement learning algorithms optimize the policy with respect to the expected gain. We propose an algorithm which enables to optimize an alternative objective: the probability that the gain is greater than a given value. The algorithm can be seen as an extension of the value iteration algorithm. We also show how the proposed algorithm could be generalized to use neural networks, similarly to the deep Q learning extension of Q learning.


Edge-Assisted V2X Motion Planning and Power Control Under Channel Uncertainty

Li, Zongze, Wang, Shuai, Zhang, Shiyao, Wen, Miaowen, Ye, Kejiang, Wu, Yik-Chung, Ng, Derrick Wing Kwan

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Edge-assisted vehicle-to-everything (V2X) motion planning is an emerging paradigm to achieve safe and efficient autonomous driving, since it leverages the global position information shared among multiple vehicles. However, due to the imperfect channel state information (CSI), the position information of vehicles may become outdated and inaccurate. Conventional methods ignoring the communication delays could severely jeopardize driving safety. To fill this gap, this paper proposes a robust V2X motion planning policy that adapts between competitive driving under a low communication delay and conservative driving under a high communication delay, and guarantees small communication delays at key waypoints via power control. This is achieved by integrating the vehicle mobility and communication delay models and solving a joint design of motion planning and power control problem via the block coordinate descent framework. Simulation results show that the proposed driving policy achieves the smallest collision ratio compared with other benchmark policies.